Regional Shift

by

  • Shift from Globalism to Regionalism/Minilateralism: The global order is moving away from universal globalism towards regional and interest-driven coalitions. Nations are favoring smaller, more focused partnerships over large multilateral institutions.

  • Reasons for the Shift:

    • Global Conflicts and Institutional Paralysis: Conflicts like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza expose the limitations of global governance. UN Security Council deadlocks hinder conflict resolution.
    • Reassertion of National Sovereignty: The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted supply chain vulnerabilities and unequal vaccine access, prompting countries to prioritize self-reliance.
    • Historical Disillusionment: Developing countries criticize unequal power dynamics in global institutions (WTO, IMF, World Bank), leading them to seek alternative platforms like BRICS.

  • Rise of Regionalism/Minilateralism:

    • Regionalism: Geographically and culturally aligned partnerships (e.g., EU, ASEAN).
    • Minilateralism: Smaller, interest-based groups (e.g., QUAD, I2U2) for focused cooperation.
    • Flexible coalitions like QUAD, BRICS, and IMEC promote strategic autonomy and faster decision-making.

  • India’s Role:

    • Actively engaging in regional initiatives like BIMSTEC and IORA.
    • Promoting regional connectivity through projects like BBIN.
    • Serving as a security provider and humanitarian responder.
    • Acting as a trade and investment hub in South Asia.
    • Promoting shared cultural and democratic values.

  • Challenges to India’s Regional Integration Efforts:

    • Perception of Hegemony: Smaller nations perceive India’s dominance as overbearing.
    • Bilateral Political Tensions: Disputes with Pakistan and China strain relations.
    • Asymmetry in Economic Capabilities: Vast economic disparities hinder policy alignment.
    • China’s Strategic Entrenchment: China’s growing influence through BRI complicates India’s agenda.

  • Way Forward for India:

    • Revive and reform regional institutions like BIMSTEC and IORA.
    • Strengthen sub-regional partnerships like BBIN.
    • Boost regional trade and connectivity through simplified customs and integrated infrastructure.
    • Foster inclusive engagement through transparent aid and cultural diplomacy.

  • Historical Context & India’s Initial Approach: Post WWII optimism faded, with big powers creating blocs like the Warsaw Pact and NATO. India, under Nehru, initially showed realism but later embraced Non-Alignment, which wasn’t as effective.

  • Regionalism as the Future: The post-globalist era is driven by regional interests. The EU and ASEAN serve as examples. South Asia is the least integrated region.

  • Modi’s Efforts: Modi is trying to inject vigor into regional geopolitics by emphasizing the Indian Ocean Region and promoting inclusivity in the Quad’s Indo-Pacific discourse. While SAARC remains dysfunctional, BIMSTEC has potential. Greater integration of the IOR through minilaterals is a priority.