TheIndian Meteorological Department(IMD), in its updated long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season that spans from June to September, has forecast most likely normal rainfall over the country.
But over the northeastern region alone, the Probability of below normal rainfall is more.
The country is divided into four homogenous rainfall regions Northwest India, South Peninsula,Central Indiaand Northeast and the Monsoon Core Zone which depicts most of the rainfed Agriculture-notes-for-state-psc-exams”>Agriculture regions.
According to the IMD update, while the SW monsoon is likely to be normal over Northwest India (between 92-108% ofLPA) and South Peninsula (between 93-107% of LPA), Central India is likely to receive over normal rainfall (more than 106% of LPA).
But Northeast India is likely to get below normal rainfall (less than 95% of LPA). The monsoon core zone is likely to receive above normal (more than 106% of LPA) rainfall.
The IMD considers normal rainfall to be 96-108% of the long period Average (LPA) of the season rainfall over the country for the period 1961-2010, which is 88 cm.
Based on IMDs Multi Model Ensemble (MME) system for forecasting, the forecast probability of below normal rainfall over NE is more (40%), while the forecast probability for normal rainfall is 33% and the probability of above normal rainfall is just 27%.
The new strategy uses the existing statistical forecasting system to generate these forecasts along with a newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system based on coupled global Climate models (CGCMs) from different global climate prediction and research centers including IMDs Monsoon Mission CFS (MMCFS) model.