In the context of India, which of the following factors is/are contrib

In the context of India, which of the following factors is/are contributor/contributors to reducing the risk of a currency crisis?

  • 1. The foreign currency earnings of India’s IT sector
  • 2. Increasing the government expenditure
  • 3. Remittances from Indians abroad

Select the correct answer using the code given below.

1 only
1 and 3 only
2 only
1, 2 and 3
This question was previously asked in
UPSC IAS – 2019
The question asks which factors contribute to reducing the risk of a currency crisis in India. A currency crisis is often associated with insufficient foreign exchange reserves to meet external obligations or defend the currency’s value against speculative attacks. Factors that increase foreign currency inflows or reduce dependence on foreign currency outflows help mitigate this risk.
Statement 1: The foreign currency earnings of India’s IT sector represent significant inflows of foreign exchange, boosting the country’s reserves. This directly helps in building a buffer against potential crises and reduces the risk.
Statement 3: Remittances from Indians abroad are also a major source of foreign currency inflow into India. Similar to IT sector earnings, remittances augment foreign exchange reserves and contribute to external stability, thus reducing the risk of a currency crisis.
Statement 2: Increasing government expenditure, if not financed sustainably, can lead to higher fiscal deficits. This can potentially exacerbate current account deficits (if it stimulates imports) or lead to inflation, which can erode confidence in the currency and potentially increase the risk of external instability, rather than reduce it.
Therefore, factors 1 and 3 contribute to reducing the risk of a currency crisis, while factor 2 is generally considered a potential risk factor if not managed prudently.
Strong foreign currency inflows from sources like IT exports and remittances increase foreign exchange reserves, which act as a buffer against currency crises. Unchecked increases in government expenditure can potentially increase external vulnerabilities.
A currency crisis typically involves a sharp decline in the value of a country’s currency, often accompanied by a depletion of foreign exchange reserves and difficulties in servicing external debt. Building up foreign exchange reserves through exports, services earnings, remittances, and foreign investment inflows is a key strategy for preventing such crises. Conversely, large and persistent current account deficits, unsustainable fiscal policies, excessive external borrowing, and capital flight can increase the vulnerability to a currency crisis.