In a given day in the rainy season, it may rain 70% of the time. If it rains, chances that a village fair make a loss on that day is 80%. However, if it does not rain, chances that fair will make a loss on that day is only 10%. If the fair has not made a loss on a given day in the rainy season, what is the probability that it has not rained on that day? A. $$\frac{3}{{10}}$$ B. $$\frac{9}{{11}}$$ C. $$\frac{{14}}{{17}}$$ D. $$\frac{{27}}{{41}}$$

$$rac{3}{{10}}$$
$$rac{9}{{11}}$$
$$rac{{14}}{{17}}$$
$$rac{{27}}{{41}}$$

The correct answer is $\boxed{\frac{14}{17}}$.

Let $P(R)$ be the probability of rain and $P(L)$ be the probability of the fair making a loss. We are given that $P(R) = 0.7$ and $P(L|R) = 0.8$. We are also given that $P(L|{\bar{R}}) = 0.1$, where ${\bar{R}}$ denotes the event of no rain. We want to find $P({\bar{R}}|L)$.

We can use Bayes’ theorem to solve this problem:

$$P({\bar{R}}|L) = \frac{P(L|{\bar{R}})P({\bar{R}})}{P(L|R)P(R) + P(L|{\bar{R}})P({\bar{R}})}$$

We know that $P(L|{\bar{R}}) = 0.1$, $P(R) = 0.7$, and $P(L|R) = 0.8$. Substituting these values into the equation, we get:

$$P({\bar{R}}|L) = \frac{0.1 \cdot 0.3}{0.8 \cdot 0.7 + 0.1 \cdot 0.3} = \frac{3}{17}$$

Therefore, the probability that it has not rained on a given day in the rainy season, given that the fair has not made a loss, is $\boxed{\frac{3}{17}}$.

Here is a brief explanation of each option:

  • Option A: $\frac{3}{10}$. This is the probability of the fair making a loss on a day when it does not rain. This is not the probability that it has not rained on a given day in the rainy season, given that the fair has not made a loss.
  • Option B: $\frac{9}{11}$. This is the probability of the fair not making a loss on a day when it rains. This is also not the probability that it has not rained on a given day in the rainy season, given that the fair has not made a loss.
  • Option C: $\frac{14}{17}$. This is the probability that it has not rained on a given day in the rainy season, given that the fair has not made a loss. This is the correct answer.
  • Option D: $\frac{27}{41}$. This is the probability of the fair not making a loss on a given day in the rainy season. This is not the probability that it has not rained on a given day in the rainy season, given that the fair has not made a loss.
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