Decline in Merchandise Trade: Global merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, a sharp contrast from the 2.9% growth in 2024, due to trade tensions.
Tariff Impact: Reactivation of US reciprocal tariffs could cut global trade growth by 0.6%, and US-China tariff escalation could reduce trade by another 0.8%.
Modest Services Growth: Global services trade is projected to grow by 4.0% in 2025, slower than expected due to tariff-induced
Regional Disparities: North America is expected to face a 12.6% decline in exports. Asia and Europe are projected to see modest trade growth.
Vulnerable Economies: LDCs are particularly vulnerable to the downturn due to reliance on a narrow range of exports.
Trade Diversion: US-China trade disruption may cause trade diversion, increasing Chinese exports outside North America and creating opportunities for other suppliers to fill US import gaps.
slow to 2.3% in 2025, signaling a potential shift toward recession, especially for developing countries.
India’s Trade Position: India’s rank among merchandise exporters and importers has dropped, with a steady or slightly decreased share of global trade.
Call for Coordination: UNCTAD urges increased regional and international policy coordination to strengthen global economic resilience amidst rising economic fragmentation.
Policy Uncertainty: Uncertainty surrounding trade policy, especially the US-China stand-off, acts as a brake on global growth.
