Monsoon & India’s Food Prices

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  • Above-Normal Monsoon Forecast: IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon for 2025 (105% of LPA), potentially boosting agricultural output.

  • Regional Variations: Uneven distribution predicted; below-normal rainfall in some regions (J&K, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Northeast), normal to above normal in core monsoon zone (MP, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, UP, WB)

  • Monsoon Impact on Food Prices: Good monsoons generally lower prices, but specific crop issues can still cause price hikes. Supply chain disruptions during heavy rains raise transportation costs.

  • Monsoon Failure & Imports: Deficient rainfall increases import dependence (pulses, edible oils), fueling inflation.

  • Other Inflation

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Factors:

  • Supply shocks (hoarding).
  • Global commodity prices (edible oils, pulses).
  • Monetary policy (higher interest rates).
  • Government policies (MSPs, export restrictions).
  • Supply chain weaknesses (storage, transport).

  • Steps to Control Inflation:

    • Improve supply chain management.
    • Promote Agri-Tech.
    • Encourage agricultural diversification.
    • Reform food subsidy systems.
    • Climate-smart practices.