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Above-Normal Monsoon Forecast: IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon for 2025 (105% of LPA), potentially boosting agricultural output.
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Regional Variations: Uneven distribution predicted; below-normal rainfall in some regions (J&K, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Northeast), normal to above normal in core monsoon zone (MP, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, UP, WB)
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Monsoon Impact on Food Prices: Good monsoons generally lower prices, but specific crop issues can still cause price hikes. Supply chain disruptions during heavy rains raise transportation costs.
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Monsoon Failure & Imports: Deficient rainfall increases import dependence (pulses, edible oils), fueling inflation.
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Other Inflation Factors:
- Supply shocks (hoarding).
- Global commodity prices (edible oils, pulses).
- Monetary policy (higher interest rates).
- Government policies (MSPs, export restrictions).
- Supply chain weaknesses (storage, transport).
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Steps to Control Inflation:
- Improve supply chain management.
- Promote Agri-Tech.
- Encourage agricultural diversification.
- Reform food subsidy systems.
- Climate-smart practices.