India has become the first country in the world to have developed a country-level mathematical model to estimate the prevalence oftuberculosis(TB) cases, official sources said.
Using this model, TB incidence and mortality estimate data for India will be available by March every year, months before the annual WHO estimates are released in October, they said, adding that India can also prepare similar estimates at the state level in future.
The model was presented before the delegates from 40 countries taking part in the 36th Stop TB PARTNERSHIP Board meeting in Varanasi last week. Most of them lauded it saying they would want to implement it in their countries.
According to WHO, the TB mortality rate (per 10,000) in 2021 was estimated to be 35, which reduced to 23 in 2022 as per the Indian model. WHO’s TB mortality absolute numbers were estimated to be 4.94 lakh in 2021. The Indian model suggested it was 3.20 lakh in 2022